As we approach the 2025 holiday season, shoppers are poised for a blend of optimism and caution amid stabilizing economic conditions. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects overall retail sales to grow 2.7% to 3.7% in 2025, reaching $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion, building on last year's holiday momentum where spending rose 2.5% to 3.5%. With inflation easing, Deloitte notes increased consumer confidence, setting the stage for another record-breaking period, though economic worries persist. Basis Technologies' survey reveals 35% of U.S. consumers plan to boost gift spending, driven by inflation, while 49% aim to minimize costs. Alarmingly, 82% will cut essentials like groceries to fund festivities, per Retail Dive.Key trends point to earlier, more intentional shopping. Bazaarvoice reports a surge in September (+6 points) and October (+4 points) starts, with December dipping 8 points, as consumers hunt deals and avoid shortages. Young shoppers (18-34) lead this, waiting for Black Friday/Cyber Monday while buying early to dodge price hikes. Microsoft Advertising highlights global sales event enthusiasm, with 85% of U.S. shoppers participating, up in markets like the U.K. (76%) and Australia (81%). Early marketing and deep discounts will be crucial.
Digital dominance reshapes the landscape. Online shopping hits 82%, up from 48% last year, per Bazaarvoice, with mobile commerce exploding—Adobe saw $131.5 billion in 2024 mobile sales, forecasting further growth via responsive designs and apps. Social commerce nearly doubles, with 21% using platforms like TikTok (+10 points influence), Instagram, and YouTube for purchases; 55% allocate 11-50% of budgets here. Inmar predicts non-linear journeys, with 40% discovering in one channel but buying in another, blending in-store, online, and mobile. AI influences 19% of buys, enhancing personalization, while trust in creators jumps 30% to 42%.Value reigns supreme: Free shipping tops priorities, and 50% of young buyers opt for store brands. Wellness trends emerge, with 60% choosing healthier options, per Inmar, and Numerator flags food, alcohol, candy, and gifts as top buys. Gifting shifts generationally—Gen Z favors friends, Boomers family—amid price sensitivity (77% scrutinize costs).
For shoppers: Start early, leverage BNPL ($18 billion in 2024), and verify reviews (50% check authenticity). Support locals (60% prefer) and align with brand values (41% boycott mismatches). Retailers: Offer omnichannel perks, timely alerts (57% find helpful), and sustainable choices to win loyalty.In 2025, holidays blend thrift with tech, promising joy for prepared participants.
